By the Numbers
By Gareth Price · Last updated
The research behind the book, in one place
In short: In LeadDev’s 2026 survey, 54% of CTOs felt emotionally drained at least weekly, up from 24% a year earlier. A study of 655 firms found that AI coding agents raised pull requests by 35.7% but resolved issues by only 13.7%. And no rigorous study tracks founding CTO replacement; the nearest finds 52% of founder-CEOs replaced by the third round.
This page collects the research figures from the chapters of Applied Alchemy in one place. Each one links to the chapter where it appears and carries the same citation, so you can read it in context before you quote it.
Where the November 2026 revision replaced an older figure with a newer one, only the newer figure appears here, and figures that the revision history records as wrong have been left out. These are other people’s numbers. My own experience as a CTO appears in the chapters as narrative, not as data, so it has no table here.
The Role
Who becomes a CTO, and how the job changes as the company grows.
| Finding | Source | Chapter |
|---|---|---|
Nearly 80% of successful technology companies have either a founding CTO or a technical CEO, in an analysis of 200,000+ career profiles across 200 companies |
Index Ventures, 2024[1] |
|
70% of CTOs previously worked as software developers; only 14% had held a VP of Engineering title |
STX Next, 2021[2] |
|
A founding CTO spends 70%+ of their time coding at 1–15 employees, 10–40% at 15–45, under 10% at 45–250 and none at 250+ |
||
A founding CTO’s job changes at each growth stage, roughly every 18 months; if all goes well, they go from coding most of the time to out of the code in five years or less |
Jarjoura, 2021[3] |
|
44% of CTOs spent more time on hands-on coding and code review than a year earlier; 37% of engineering leaders said their hands-on responsibilities had grown, up from 25% in 2025 |
LeadDev, 2026[5] |
|
The share of new US startups with a solo founder rose from 23.7% in 2019 to 36.3% in the first half of 2025 |
Carta, 2025[6] |
|
92% of US CTOs are men and 76% are white, with an average age of 51 at established companies, across more than 8,600 profiles |
Zippia[7] |
Tenure and Replacement
How long CTOs last, and why they leave. No rigorous study measures founding CTO replacement rates by funding stage; the nearest large study tracks founder-CEOs.
| Finding | Source | Chapter |
|---|---|---|
52% of founder-CEOs have been replaced by the third financing round, and nearly three-quarters of those replacements were involuntary, in a study of more than 10,000 founders |
Wasserman, 2008[8] |
|
Replacing founders improves company outcomes, particularly when the replaced founder is a C-level executive who leaves entirely, across 11,929 VC-backed firms |
Ewens & Marx, 2018[9] |
|
Of the founding CTOs she has seen fired, 70% could not communicate with the board and other non-technical stakeholders, 30% were not strategic enough, and none were fired for their technical skills (one adviser’s practice, not a survey) |
Chalmers, c. 2023[10] |
|
CIO and CTO average tenure is about 4.3 years in the top 1,000 US companies, against 6.9 for CEOs and 3.5 for CMOs |
Korn Ferry, 2020[11] |
|
CTO tenures in the United States average three to 5.5 years; the most frequent reason for termination is failing to build trust with the rest of the executive team |
AKF Partners, 2024[12] |
|
Nearly 50% of senior technology executives are at risk with their C-suite peers at any given time |
AKF Partners, 2018[13] |
|
45% of digital and technology officers had been in their role for five years or more; 41% of engineering leaders were considering leaving |
Heidrick & Struggles, 2024; CTO Craft & Albany, 2025[14] |
|
34% of CTOs had considered moving back to an individual contributor role in the past year |
LeadDev, 2026[15] |
The CEO-CTO Relationship and Startup Failure
| Finding | Source | Chapter |
|---|---|---|
84% of startups have co-founders; 73% of founding teams split equity within a month of forming; each additional social relationship in the founding team raises the likelihood of a co-founder leaving by 30% |
Wasserman, 2012[16] |
|
About one in four VC-backed two-founder teams had lost a co-founder by year four, around 30% by year five and close to 40% by year eight |
Carta, reported by SaaStr, 2025[17] |
|
Of 431 VC-backed startups that shut down after 2023, 70% of those with identifiable reasons ran out of capital; the root causes named were poor product-market fit (43%), bad timing (29%) and unsustainable unit economics (19%) |
CB Insights, 2026[18] |
|
Of Carta’s 2018 startup cohort, tracked over seven years, 62% shut down entirely, 15% reached Series B and about 1.3% became unicorns |
Carta, 2025[19] |
Shipping, Debt and Metrics
| Finding | Source | Chapter |
|---|---|---|
Elite performers deploy 182 times more often than low performers and recover from failures 2,293 times faster |
DORA, 2024[20] |
|
As AI adoption rose, delivery throughput fell an estimated 1.5% and delivery stability 7.2% |
DORA, 2024[21] |
|
Changes cause roughly 70% of Google’s outages |
Google SRE, 2018[22] |
|
Across 655 firms, adopting AI coding agents brought 44% more lines of code and 35.7% more pull requests but only 13.7% more resolved issues; time from review request to approval rose 56.1% (a working paper, not yet peer-reviewed) |
Chen & Stratton, 2026[23] |
|
Median pull-request throughput rose 37% in a year to 1.94 per engineer per week as AI-generated code reached 52.7%; time on new capabilities held flat at 57–58% and developers' confidence in their changes fell 6.1% |
DX, 2026[24] |
|
Moved code, the signature of refactoring, fell from 21% of changed lines in 2022 to 3.8% in 2026, while duplicated code blocks rose 81% over 2023, across 623 million code changes |
GitClear, 2026[25] |
|
Engineers spend an average of 33% of their time, 13.5 hours a week, dealing with technical debt and maintenance rather than building new features |
Stripe, 2018[26] |
|
Technical debt remained among the top four sources of developer friction in 2026, cited by 44% of 1,560 developers and engineering leaders |
Atlassian, 2026[27] |
|
Technical debt typically accounts for 20–40% of the technology estate, with 10–20% of the technology budget diverted to servicing it |
McKinsey, 2020[28] |
AI and Engineering Productivity
The fastest-moving evidence in the book. Several of these figures replaced earlier ones in the November 2026 revision.
| Finding | Source | Chapter |
|---|---|---|
92.6% of 121,000 developers use an AI coding assistant at least monthly, and self-report saving roughly four hours a week, about a 10% gain |
DX, 2026[29] |
|
90% of respondents use AI at work, up 14 percentage points in a year |
DORA, 2025[30] |
|
In a follow-up trial with 57 developers, AI tools cut task time by an estimated 18% for returning developers and 4% for new ones, with confidence intervals that included zero; METR called its data "only very weak evidence". This supersedes METR’s 2025 finding of a slowdown |
METR, 2026[31] |
|
In periods of high AI adoption, developers completed 34% more tasks but produced 54% more bugs, with more than three times as many incidents per pull request and 31% more pull requests merged with no review, across 22,000 developers (vendor data, correlational) |
Faros AI, 2026[32] |
|
The security pass rate for AI-generated code rose to 62% in autumn 2026, from 56% earlier in the year; the best models still failed more than one in four security tasks |
||
In a controlled experiment with 47 developers, only 21% of those with an AI assistant wrote secure code on encryption tasks, and they were more likely to believe their code was secure |
Perry et al., 2023[35] |
|
The price of GPT-4-level performance on doctoral-level science questions fell by a factor of 40 a year, from about $20 to $0.40 per million tokens |
Epoch AI, 2025[36] |
|
Nearly half of companies now report real value from AI, and 7.5% are classed as "future-built", in a survey of 1,330 executives |
BCG, 2026[37] |
|
32% of organisations had decided against buying at least one software product or feature because they could build it with agentic coding tools |
McKinsey, 2026[38] |
|
71% of corporate directors said their boards needed stronger AI skills |
PwC, 2026[39] |
Hiring
| Finding | Source | Chapter |
|---|---|---|
Entry-level roles were 4.5% of US software development job postings in the first quarter of 2026, against 69.3% for senior roles |
Indeed Hiring Lab, 2026[40] |
|
Median headcount at similar-stage startups fell 17.5%, from 57 to 47, while median funding per employee roughly doubled |
Revelio Labs, via CNBC, 2025[41] |
|
Detected cheating and fraud attempts in proctored technical assessments rose from 16% in 2024 to 35% in 2025, and 40% for entry-level roles |
CodeSignal, 2026[42] |
|
40% of 3,000 US hiring managers had interviewed a candidate later found to be using a fake identity, up from 31%; 28% had advanced a candidate they suspected of dishonesty to fill a role quickly |
Checkr, 2026[43] |
|
Hybrid work had no measurable effect on productivity or promotion and cut resignations by 33%, in a randomised trial with 1,612 employees |
Bloom et al., 2024[44] |
Burnout and Isolation
| Finding | Source | Chapter |
|---|---|---|
54% of CTOs felt emotionally drained by their work at least once a week, up from 24% a year earlier, the largest rise of any role; 45% of all respondents were working more hours than a year before (CTOs were only 6% of respondents) |
LeadDev, 2026[45] |
|
22% of engineering leaders and developers were at critical burnout levels and 46% at moderate to critical levels, on the Maslach Burnout Inventory |
LeadDev, 2025[46] |
|
97% of 100 tech leaders had felt lonely as a leader; 19% felt lonely "all of the time" |
CTO Craft[47] |
|
50% of CEOs report loneliness, and 61% say it hinders their performance |
RHR International, 2012[48] |
|
54% of founders experienced burnout in the previous twelve months, and 75% reported anxiety |
Sifted, 2025[49] |
|
49% of entrepreneurs reported a lifetime mental health condition, with depression at 30% |
Freeman et al., 2015[50] |
|
A single meeting-free day a week raised productivity by 35% and cut stress by 57% |
Laker et al., 2022[51] |
Compensation and Equity
Pay figures are US, cash only, and exclude equity.
| Finding | Source | Chapter |
|---|---|---|
Founding CTOs earn 53% less on average than hired CTOs: $139,000 against $213,000 across stages |
Kruze Consulting, 2024[52] |
|
Average CTO cash pay is $155,000 at seed, $196,000 at Series A and $238,000 at Series B; the overall median is $166,000 |
Kruze Consulting, 2026[53] |
|
A CTO hired at Series A typically receives about 1.0% of the company (range 0.8–2.0%) |
Index Ventures[54] |
|
44.6% of two-founder teams formed in 2025 split equity equally; the median split was 51/49 |
Carta, 2026[55] |
|
Median dilution per round from seed to Series C fell from about 18% to 16% during 2025 |
Carta, 2026[56] |
|
Only 32.8% of vested, in-the-money options were exercised in late 2024 |
Carta, 2024[57] |
|
60% of venture-backed companies return less than the original investment, in data spanning 1990 to 2010 |
Cambridge Associates, via Holloway[58] |
What These Numbers Can and Can’t Tell You
Most of these figures come from surveys, and a survey is only as good as the people who answer it. CTOs were 6% of LeadDev’s respondents, so its CTO figures rest on a small subsample. The best-known replacement figure tracks founder-CEOs, not CTOs, because no equivalent study of CTOs exists. The reasons CTOs are fired come from one adviser’s practice. Several AI figures come from companies that sell engineering analytics, and the largest study of AI and delivery is a working paper that has not yet been peer-reviewed.
The AI figures also date fastest. METR’s 2025 trial, which found experienced developers slower with AI, was out of date within a year, and Veracode’s security pass rate moved within months. Treat anything about AI as a reading taken in 2026, not a constant.
What the figures can tell you is direction. CTOs are under more strain than a year ago, the role changes faster than the people in it, and AI has moved the bottleneck in software from writing code to reviewing it. Each of those holds across more than one source on this page.
Numbers like these are the easiest part of the book to quote and the easiest to misread. Each comes from a single study with its own sample, its own date and its own definitions. Follow the link, read the chapter, and check the source before you put a figure in front of your board.
Frequently Asked Questions
-
How long do startup CTOs usually stay in the role?
Usually a few years. Korn Ferry found that CIO and CTO average tenure at the top 1,000 US companies was about 4.3 years, against 6.9 for CEOs, and AKF Partners puts US CTO tenures at three to 5.5 years. No rigorous study tracks founding CTOs specifically; the nearest, Noam Wasserman’s study of more than 10,000 founders, found that 52% of founder-CEOs had been replaced by the third financing round. Chapters 10 and 16 of Applied Alchemy cover the evidence and what it means for a CTO deciding whether to stay.
-
How much time does a startup CTO spend coding?
It depends on the size of the company. Daniel Jarjoura’s model puts coding at 70% or more of a founding CTO’s time up to about 15 employees, 10 to 40% at 15 to 45, under 10% at 45 to 250, and none beyond that. AI tools are pulling some leaders back towards the code: LeadDev’s 2026 survey found 44% of CTOs spending more time on hands-on coding and code review than a year earlier. Chapter 1 of Applied Alchemy sets out the four stages.
-
How common is burnout among startup CTOs?
Common, and getting worse. LeadDev’s Engineering Leadership Report 2026 found that 54% of CTOs felt emotionally drained by their work at least once a week, up from 24% a year earlier, although CTOs were only 6% of the people surveyed. A CTO Craft survey of 100 tech leaders found that 97% had felt lonely as a leader. Chapter 15 of Applied Alchemy treats both as structural features of the role rather than personal failings.
-
Why do startup CTOs get fired?
Rarely for their technical skills. CTO adviser Adelina Chalmers reports that of the founding CTOs she has seen fired, 70% could not communicate with the board and other non-technical leaders, 30% were not strategic enough, and none were fired for their technical skills. AKF Partners names a failure to build trust with the rest of the executive team as the most frequent reason. Chapter 10 of Applied Alchemy argues that the business acumen gap, not code, is what costs CTOs their jobs.
-
Does AI make software teams more productive?
It produces more code, but not yet proportionally more delivered work. In Fiona Chen and James Stratton’s study of 655 firms, adopting AI coding agents brought 35.7% more pull requests but only 13.7% more resolved issues, and the time from review request to approval rose 56.1%. METR’s 2026 follow-up trial estimated speedups of 4 to 18% but called its own data only very weak evidence. Chapters 6 and 12 of Applied Alchemy explain why review capacity, not typing speed, is now the constraint.